Disruptions
United States Disruption Watch
Disruption Watch.
Across the 50 states and DC, 6 places rate High or Severe this week: California, New Mexico, Washington, Arizona, Florida, Oregon. Nationally, tight diesel, a stretched winter grid, bird flu in herds and flocks, and China-linked cyber intrusions set the 6 to 18 month risk.
What's moving
- Fuel: US retail diesel was $6.292/gal on Nov 2; EIA expects distillate stocks about 11% below the five-year average this quarter. (EIA, Nov 2, 2026)
- Fuel: EIA's winter fuels outlook frames household heating costs for the season. (EIA, Oct 6, 2026)
- Fuel: DOE authorized a Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange to support fuel supply out of Lake Charles. (DOE, Oct 27, 2026)
- Power: PJM warned of tight power supply heading into winter. (TechTarget, Oct 28, 2026)
- Power: MISO projects about 134.7 GW available against a 113.4 GW winter peak, with evening ramps the main risk. (MISO, Oct 2026)
- Cyber: CISA warned Oct 8 of China-linked actors in US critical infrastructure. (CISA, Oct 8, 2026)
- Cyber: CISA and FBI warned Oct 21 of SafePay ransomware, about 600 victims in 2026. (CISA, Oct 21, 2026)
- Cyber: FBI warned of actors targeting internet-facing water-sector PLCs. (FBI, 2026)
- Food: 1.3 million California laying hens hit by bird flu. (WATTPoultry, Oct 29, 2026)
- Food: APHIS confirmed bird flu in an Indiana dairy herd Nov 2. (USDA APHIS, Nov 2, 2026)
- Food: avian flu confirmed in Minnesota and Wisconsin turkeys. (WATTPoultry, Oct 27, 2026)
- Ports: PMA and ILWU Local 26 extended the LA/Long Beach watchmen contract through midnight PT Nov 6. (Pacific Maritime Association, Nov 4, 2026)
- Civil: Election Day unfolded largely calmly with sporadic problems. (AP, Nov 3, 2026)
- Weather: NOAA has an El Nino advisory in effect. (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026)
- Cross-state: risk tiers this build are Severe 3, High 3, Elevated 9, Moderate 28, Low 8. Top places: California, New Mexico, Washington, Arizona, Florida, Oregon, Hawaii, Indiana.
What's claimed
- Claim: white-powder letters reached election offices nationwide. Status: confirmed mailings; none found hazardous so far. (FBI IC3, Oct 23, 2026)
- Claim: assorted Election Day fraud and interference accusations. Status: AP found many false or unverified. (AP via PBS, Nov 3, 2026)
- Claim: federal intervention disrupted voting. Status: Votebeat found voting ran smoothly with sporadic problems. (Votebeat, Nov 4, 2026)
What's sourced
- Gasoline and diesel fuel update, EIA, Nov 2, 2026
- Winter fuels outlook, EIA, Oct 6, 2026
- SPR exchange to support fuel supply (Lake Charles), DOE, Oct 27, 2026
- PJM warns of tight power supply, TechTarget, Oct 28, 2026
- MISO winter readiness assessment 2026-2027, MISO, Oct 2026
- AA26-281A China-linked actors advisory, CISA, Oct 8, 2026
- SafePay ransomware advisory, CISA, Oct 21, 2026
- Actors targeting water-sector internet-facing PLCs, FBI, 2026
- 1.3 million California laying hens struck by avian flu, WATTPoultry, Oct 29, 2026
- HPAI confirmed in Indiana dairy herd, USDA APHIS, Nov 2, 2026
- APHIS confirms avian flu in Minnesota, Wisconsin turkeys, WATTPoultry, Oct 27, 2026
- Updated statement on negotiations with ILWU Local 26, Pacific Maritime Association, Nov 4, 2026
- Election Day unfolded calmly, AP, Nov 3, 2026
- ENSO diagnostic discussion (El Nino Advisory), NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026
- White-powder letters to election officials, FBI IC3, Oct 23, 2026
- False accusations and unverified claims about Election Day voting, AP via PBS, Nov 3, 2026
- Voting runs smoothly despite fears of intervention, Votebeat, Nov 4, 2026
- 2026-27 respiratory season outlook, CDC, 2026
- Long-lead seasonal outlook, NOAA CPC, Oct 15, 2026
- 2026-27 Winter Reliability Assessment schedule, NERC, Aug 2026
- Weekly distillate stocks, Table 6, EIA, Oct 28, 2026
- CN bargaining updates, CN, 2026
- LA-Long Beach strike delay and rail backlog, The Conveyor, Oct 29, 2026
- President approves emergency declaration for New Mexico, FEMA, Oct 26, 2026
- Governor seeks Major Disaster Declaration for northern NM floods, Office of the Governor, Nov 2, 2026
- Avian influenza update, Yakima County, Nov 5, 2026
- H5N1 in Benton County dairy herd, WSDA, Oct 26, 2026
- Storm causes deadly flooding, voting disruptions in Southwest, CNN, Nov 3, 2026
- Panhandle recovery after Isaias, CBS Miami, Oct 2026
- FPL restoration update, FPL, Oct 2026
- Fueling Up in Oregon: Supply and Pricing, Oregon Dept. of Energy, Mar 23, 2026
- Hawaiian Electric completes repairs after Lala, Hawaiian Electric, Aug 31, 2026
- Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 (OpenFEMA), FEMA, pulled Nov 5, 2026
What we don't know
- Evidence is thin for 30 of 51 places (AK, AR, DC, DE, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NJ, NV, NY, OH, PA, SC, SD, TN, WI, WV, WY); a thin page is not a low-risk finding.
- NERC's 2026-27 Winter Reliability Assessment is not out until Nov 18, so regional winter reserve margins are not yet confirmed.
- Whether the LA/Long Beach Local 26 talks settle, extend again, or go out after the Nov 6 midnight extension.
- How far bird flu in dairy herds spreads beyond the states listed, and what it does to milk and egg prices.
What to watch next
- Nov 18, 2026: NERC Winter Reliability Assessment.
- Weekly: EIA distillate stocks and diesel prices.
- Dec 31, 2026: CN rail contract expirations (cross-border freight).
- Late Dec 2026 to Feb 2027: CDC expected respiratory peak.
- Weekly: USDA APHIS bird-flu detections.
- Canvass and certification of Nov 3 results into Jan 2027.