These six are the lanes that look like a government, not a comment section. São Paulo and Minas and Goiás, plus the presidential and Senate vehicles that sit next to them. Some of the same names appear on Opposition 10. That is fine. This list is the cut you use if you only care who is running the country-shaped race.
X will not put these people on For You unless you already follow them. Follow the list, or better, Premium plus Decks, one column per list. Route around censors. Brazilians have brains. They can make up their own minds.
The competent engineer who can win without the family last name.
What the machinery is doing
SP governor whose path to the Planalto is performance plus Bolsonaro-adjacent voters minus the legal circus. Tickets and Opposition 10 because São Paulo is the prize and he already holds it.
Governorship of SP is LT. 'Vote 10' is the current product code.
Infrastructure minister under Bolsonaro is the origin story. The 2026 question is whether he is the coalition's adult or just a nicer wrapper.
He can run as continuity or as rupture-from-the-clan. Watch which costume he wears after the first debate.
The outsider businessman who 'put Minas back on its feet' and now wants the country.
What the machinery is doing
Two-term MG governor on a Novo lane, running a presidential-shaped campaign as the non-clan, non-PT manager. Tickets because a governor of Minas is a national fact, not a podcast.
Governorship of Minas is LT. 'Cara de fora da política' is Irish True as origin, Lawyer False after two terms in the Palácio da Liberdade.
Novo presidential bid is a bet that anti-PT voters will take a manager over a family.
Shares the opposition map with Tarcísio and Caiado. Three governors is a primary, not a unity ticket.
The best-polled governor who wants to take the Goiás security story nationwide.
What the machinery is doing
Long-time Goiás politician, now governor selling '8x best evaluated' and a hard-regulation, hard-security presidential run. Tickets because he is already head of a state and is asking for the country.
'8X o governador mais bem avaliado' is a polling product. Treat it as a campaign number, not a peer-reviewed paper.
Security is the export: bank-robbery zero, homicide talk, contrast with Bahia / PT. That is the ad.
Shares Goiás with Gayer's Senate bid. State synergy is possible. Ego collision is also possible.
The judge who jailed a president and then discovered politics is a different sport.
What the machinery is doing
A Lava Jato celebrity converted into União Brasil / Senate / now a Paraná gubernatorial bid. The Car Wash halo is the asset. The partisan conversion is the liability. Tickets because a Moro lane still looks like a government-shaped option to anti-PT voters who do not want the clan.
Judge-to-minister-to-senator is LT. 'Soldado da lei' is branding.
The 14th-amendment / partiality fight around Lula's convictions is the permanent argument. Irish True that Lava Jato changed Brazilian politics. Lawyer messy on what a court later did to those cases.
A Paraná run is a downshift from national savior to a state he can actually win. That is either humility or the market speaking.
The heir: Senate seat, family lawyering, and a presidential sticker on the profile.
What the machinery is doing
A sitting senator whose name is the asset. The rachadinha case is the permanent LT stain. The 2026 presidential branding is a bid to keep the clan in the first tier if Jair cannot run.
Senate is LT. 'Resgatar o Brasil' is the same slogan as the rest of the family.
He sits on Tickets and Opposition 10 because a Bolsonaro on a national ticket is still the coalition's gravitational mass.
Legal trouble and family loyalty are the same story: the brand survives by absorbing both.
The MBL strategist who decided the movement needed a president, not just deputies.
What the machinery is doing
Founder of Movimento Brasil Livre and Partido Missão, guitarist-on-the-side, now a long-shot presidential bid. Tickets and MBL because he is the faction's brain and its nominee. Low poll share is LT when measured. High press panic after Jornal Nacional is the content.
Founder of MBL is LT. Presidente da República is the ask, not the job.
The 2026 JN appearance is the proof-of-life moment: elite media treated a 3% liberal as a dictator-in-waiting. That gap is the campaign.
Anti-PT without Bolsonaro fan club is the lane. If he collapses into either, the list stops making sense.
Tarcísio de Freitas
@tarcisiogdf
Governor of São Paulo. Former infrastructure minister under Bolsonaro.
